The Market

Liver Cancer Patient Market

Each year 26,500 new cases of liver cancer are diagnosed in the U.S., 1.5 m worldwide. Current treatments only prolong life for a few months and only early stage (20% of patients) have the option to have surgery. Surgery has a 50% success rate by extending life for only about 5 years. Survival Rates are low with non-operable cases only having 4% success of a 5 year survival.

Secondary Liver Cancer Infections

The liver ranks second only to the lymph nodes as a common site of metastasis of cancers from other organs. Specifically, the liver is a common site of metastasis from gastrointestinal tumors. In the United States, the most common extrahepatic primary cancer associated with secondary liver cancer is colorectal cancer, and metastasis to the liver is the leading cause of death in patients with colorectal cancer. Approximately 20% of the nearly 160,000 Americans diagnosed with colorectal cancer each year will have liver metastases at presentation. An additional 20–30% will develop liver metastases subsequent to treatment of their primary cancer. This means that every year there are approximately 64,000 – 80,000 cases of liver tumors metastatic from colorectal cancers alone. In only 30% of these cases the metastatic disease is confined to the liver.

It is estimated that only 10–25% of patients with liver metastases from any primary site meet the criteria for surgery. The remaining 75–90% of patients are not appropriate candidates due to the existence of bilobar or extrahepatic disease, unfavorable tumor biology, more than four metastatic tumors, or the inability to achieve an adequate tumor-negative surgical margin because of the tumor's proximity to major vascular or biliary structures.

According to the National Cancer Institute the following shows, in descending order from left to right, the three most common sites of metastasis, excluding lymph nodes, for several types of cancer:
Cancer type       Main sites of metastasis
Breast Lungs, liver, bones
Colon Liver, peritoneum, lungs
Kidney Lungs, liver, bones
Lungs Adrenal gland, liver, lungs
Melanoma Lungs, skin/muscle, liver
Ovary Peritoneum, liver, lungs
Pancreas Liver, lungs, peritoneum
Prostate Bones, lungs, liver
Rectum Liver, lungs, adrenal gland
Stomach Liver, peritoneum, lungs
Thyroid Lungs, liver, bones
Uterus Liver, lungs, peritoneum

Current Survival Rates for all stages of Liver Cancer.

Based on information taken from the National Cancer Institute the following shows an estimated 5 year survival rate broken out into 3 stages (see definitions below).
Stage         5-year Relative Survival Rate
Localized 27%
Regional 9%
Distant 4%

(Localized means only one or 2 tumors in one lobe of the liver, and includes stage I and some stage II cancers. Regional means many tumors, spread to other lobes or parts of the liver, and/or spread to lymph nodes (includes some stage II cancers, all stage III cancers, and stage IVA cancers). Distant means that the cancer has spread to distant organs or tissues and is the same as stage IVB.)

For all stages combined, the relative 5-year survival rate from liver cancer is about 14%.

Current Survival Rates for Secondary or Metastasized Liver Cancer (Stage IV)

Stage IV liver cancer is the one that has spread to different organs of the body which is referred to as metastasized cancer . The cancer may have spread to the lungs or the bones. The size of the tumor can vary and may have also spread to the blood vessels and/or lymph nodes near the liver.
The survival rates for stage 4 liver cancer are found to be very low. Statistics have shown an average of only 7% as the stage 4 liver cancer survival rates for a 5 year period. Those whose cancer is surgically removed show a survival rate of about 75% after 1 year, 50% after 3 years and 30% after 5 years. Metastatic liver cancer life expectancy is 0%, that is, no survivors, even if one undergoes liver transplantation.

The stage 4 liver cancer life expectancy is the lowest as one is fighting a battle with two different cancers. The patient is weak and has no strength to overcome both the cancers. The stage 4 liver cancer survival rates is about 6 months to 1 year, with treatment.

Liver Cancer Therapeutic Market:

In 2011 a total of $505M was spent on Liver cancer therapy.
It is projected that the market could be expected to reach $6.9 B by 2016.

Market Share

Based on the projected market, Savoy is projecting revenue of $690M Revenue representing 10% of the market in 2016 (estimating the treatment of 12,000 patients)
NPV @ 30% = $1,230
IRR= 115%